Strait of Hormuz: When the Global Energy System Comes to a Halt
- Alessandro Fiorente
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
In June 2025, we analyzed how the global energy system was exposed to geopolitical shocks concentrated in a few critical points. Among them, the Strait of Hormuz stands out as most sensitive: a narrow maritime corridor through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows. At the time, this was considered a potential risk. Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States suggested possible instability, but without direct and immediate impact on energy flows.
Since late February 2026, the situation has changed dramatically. Coordinated attacks by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets triggered a direct regional conflict, followed by Iranian military responses across the region. Within this escalation, the Strait of Hormuz has become a key strategic pressure point. Iran has threatened—and partially implemented—measures to disrupt maritime traffic, limiting vessel transit and targeting logistical and commercial assets.
The result has been a sharp decline in traffic and a significant increase in navigational risk, with immediate consequences for global energy markets. In this context, the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a geopolitical risk. It has become an operational crisis point capable of directly affecting the stability of the global energy system.
The issue, however, goes beyond the strait itself. It concerns the structure of the global energy system as a whole.
Hormuz: The World’s Energy Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is only 39 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. Despite its size, it represents one of the most strategic energy corridors in the world.
According to International Energy Agency, approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every day, accounting for nearly 20% of global consumption. Exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar rely heavily on this route. The global LNG market is equally exposed: Qatar, one of the world’s leading exporters, depends almost entirely on this passage to reach international markets. This concentration makes Hormuz one of the most critical global energy chokepoints, alongside Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Malacca.
From Threat to Operational Crisis
In recent months, geopolitical tensions in the region have escalated to the point of directly impacting maritime traffic. According to Reuters, several commercial vessels have been attacked or damaged, while hundreds of ships have remained anchored in the Gulf awaiting safer conditions. At the same time, Financial Times reported a sharp increase in “war risk” insurance premiums, making tanker transit significantly more expensive.
In such a scenario, even limited incidents can generate amplified effects: global energy system reacts not only to actual disruptions but also to perceived risk.
Impact on Energy Markets
Consequences for energy markets have been immediate. According to Bloomberg, Brent crude prices exceeded $100 per barrel during the most critical phases of the crisis. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that a major disruption in flows could push prices up to $150 per barrel. However, core issue is not price volatility itself, but structural fragility of system.
Global energy market relies on a highly interconnected and low-redundancy logistics network. When one of its key nodes is destabilized, the entire system comes under stress.
Structural Fragility of the Energy System
In recent years, some Gulf countries have attempted to reduce their dependence on the strait by developing alternative pipeline infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have invested in systems that partially bypass Hormuz, connecting oil fields to terminals on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman.
However, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, these alternatives are not sufficient to compensate for a complete closure of the strait. In the event of prolonged disruption, a significant share of global supply would lose direct access to international markets. The Strait of Hormuz is not an isolated case, but a clear symptom of a broader vulnerability. Over decades, global energy system has been designed to maximize efficiency: concentrating routes, optimizing flows, and reducing costs.
Today, this model is showing its limits. Geopolitical dynamics are evolving faster than the system’s ability to adapt. The concentration of infrastructure in a few critical nodes, combined with growing global instability, exposes the system to systemic risk.
Energy and Geopolitics: A Return to the Center
In the 1990s, it was widely believed that globalization would reduce geopolitical relevance of energy. Today, the opposite appears to be happening.
Control over routes, infrastructure, and production areas has once again become central to global power dynamics. Energy is no longer just an economic variable, but a primary geopolitical instrument. In this context, maritime security is becoming increasingly strategic, as major powers seek to maintain control over global energy flows.
At the same time, global energy system is attempting to adapt by opening new production hubs. Countries such as Guyana, Brazil, and parts of West Africa are emerging as new energy centers. This diversification could reduce dependence on critical chokepoints. However, infrastructure development takes time. The transformation of the energy system is slow, while geopolitical tensions are rapid and unpredictable. This imbalance represents one of the main risks to future stability.
When Efficiency Becomes Vulnerability
Over past decades, global energy system has been built around a principle of logistical efficiency. This model worked within a relatively stable geopolitical context. Today, however, that same architecture is revealing its limitations.
Geopolitical dynamics are evolving faster than the system’s ability to adapt. Concentration of energy routes in a few strategic corridors, combined with increasing global instability, is pushing this model toward a critical threshold. The Strait of Hormuz is not an anomaly, but a clear symptom of structural fragility. It is not the problem itself, but the most visible manifestation of a system built on assumptions that no longer hold. At the same time, the return of energy as a primary geopolitical tool makes this fragility even more relevant. Control over routes and infrastructure has once again become central to international competition.
A critical misalignment is emerging: the gap between the speed of geopolitical events and the slow pace of infrastructure transformation. Energy companies are trying to diversify and develop new hubs, but infrastructure takes years to build, while crises unfold rapidly and often unpredictably.
The energy transition does not eliminate this issue in the short term. Oil and gas remain central not only as energy carriers, but as geopolitical instruments. Rather than reducing tensions, the system may simply shift them toward new resources.
Maritime security is becoming increasingly critical, yet a paradox emerges: the same powers attempting to ensure stability are often part of the dynamics that generate instability.
From an engineering perspective, this raises an unresolved question. If energy infrastructure becomes a strategic target, resilience can no longer be addressed purely as a technical challenge. The key lesson of the Strait of Hormuz is twofold: it exposes the fragility of a system built on a limited number of critical nodes, and shows how this fragility can quickly turn into geopolitical leverage. Rethinking the architecture of global energy infrastructure is no longer just a technical choice. It is a strategic necessity. Because in the emerging energy system, designing infrastructure will increasingly mean designing resilience within an unstable environment.
Sources:
Reuters. (2026, 1 marzo).“Hundreds of ships drop anchor in Middle East Gulf as Iran conflict escalates.”
Reuters. (2026, 12 marzo).“Ships must coordinate with Iran’s navy to pass through Strait of Hormuz.”
International Energy Agency. (2026).“Oil security and emergency response – Strait of Hormuz.”
https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025).“World Oil Transit Chokepoints.”
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints
Shankar, P. - Al Jazeera (2026, 1 marzo).“How US-Israel attacks on Iran threaten the Strait of Hormuz and oil markets.”
Zero Carbon Analytics. (2026).“Countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Max Zahn - ABC News. (2026, 3 marzo).“Unrest in the Strait of Hormuz leading to rising oil and gasoline prices.”
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