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Oil & Gas and the global crisis: the Persian Gulf between instability and new strategies

rotte commerciali mondiali del petrolio ed impianti oil&gas

June 22, 2025 marks a turning point for the geopolitical and strategic balance of the global energy system. The U.S. air strike on Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan has reignited latent tensions and exposed the structural vulnerability of an energy model dependent on a limited number of highly geopolitically exposed hubs. In a context already shaped by the Ukrainian crisis and the reconfiguration of European energy supply, the event has reactivated global risk dynamics and accelerated reflections on the need for a new energy paradigm—more distributed, resilient, and less exposed to systemic shocks.


The key term underlying the entire analysis is Oil & Gas, the sector at the core of global economic, strategic, and infrastructural balances.


Geopolitical context and regional dynamics


The military operation of June 22, presented by the U.S. President as a preventive action, targeted three key infrastructures of Iran’s nuclear program. While Western sources (Gambrell, 2025) described the facilities as “completely obliterated,” Iranian authorities minimized the damage, calling it significant but reversible. The U.S. intervention followed Israeli air raids on June 13, triggering a rapid escalation.


Iran responded with ballistic missile launches toward Israel and attacks on a U.S. base in Qatar, reinforcing its deterrence posture. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei labeled the strike a “strategic failure” and announced the suspension of relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


At the same time, regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey activated diplomatic channels and strengthened military monitoring. Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement with OPEC+ to ensure continuity of energy flows, while the UAE increased naval and aerial inspections in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey convened an extraordinary D-8 summit focused on energy security and regional stability.


These developments highlight how deeply the Oil & Gas sector is intertwined with military and diplomatic dynamics, and how threats to its stability directly affect the global economy.


Markets under pressure and diplomatic response


Economic effects were immediate. Brent crude prices rose by 11% in the following days, returning to alert levels. However, the overall market reaction remained contained. According to analyst Ben Cahill (Axios, 2025), the limited risk premium reflects both adequate supply and OPEC+’s ability to modulate output.


Energy stocks experienced a temporary surge followed by corrections reflecting investor uncertainty. Major oil operators issued updates on operational risks in the MENA region, reaffirming their commitment to production and commercial continuity.


On the diplomatic front, a phased ceasefire was negotiated with mediation by the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union. However, the truce remains fragile and vulnerable to renewed incidents. The most critical instability factor continues to be the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for Middle Eastern energy exports.


The Strait of Hormuz: strategic leverage and structural threat


Only 39 km wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is the primary corridor for oil and LNG transit from the Gulf. Approximately 20 million barrels of crude pass through it daily (International Energy Agency, 2025), accounting for one fifth of global production. Existing land pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot fully compensate for a complete closure.


Following the attack, Iran renewed threats of partial closure and intensified naval operations and anti-ship missile tests. Risks of sabotage, tanker attacks, and mining increased. According to Goldman Sachs (The Guardian, 2025), even limited disruptions could push Brent prices above USD 100 per barrel, with extreme scenarios reaching USD 150.


East Asia responded by reinforcing long-term contracts with alternative suppliers. Japan initiated talks with Australia and Malaysia to increase LNG imports, while China reactivated parts of the Belt and Road Initiative to secure land-based energy corridors. Asian Oil & Gas markets thus activated containment and diversification mechanisms.


European energy security: risks and countermeasures


The crisis has exposed the fragility of Europe’s energy strategy. Following the disruption of Russian flows via Ukraine and Belarus, the EU has increasingly relied on maritime supplies. According to European Commission data (2025), 60% of LNG imports transit by sea. In the event of a Strait blockade, European spot prices could triple, impacting energy-intensive industries.


The REPowerEU plan mandates the end of new contracts with Moscow from 2025 and aims for full phase-out by 2027. However, internal infrastructure remains insufficient. Limited LNG terminals, interconnection bottlenecks, and storage capacity gaps continue to represent structural vulnerabilities.


While cooperation with Norway, Qatar, Azerbaijan, and the United States has mitigated risks, it is not yet sufficient. Competition with Asian buyers further complicates the landscape. Europe’s Oil & Gas sector must therefore adopt more flexible and decentralized strategies, investing in new energy corridors and resilience.


Transition and relocation: emerging energy hubs


The Gulf crisis has reignited debate on decentralizing energy production. Countries such as Guyana and Brazil are emerging as new offshore hubs. Guyana surpassed 600,000 barrels per day and aims for one million by 2027 (Reuters, 2025). Brazil exceeded 3.4 million barrels per day through pre-salt field development.


These trends indicate a broader geographic distribution of supply, reducing dependence on high-risk areas. However, they require substantial investment in logistics, security, and advanced extraction technologies. Oil & Gas companies are already adapting strategies to include less geopolitically exposed regions.


In West Africa, new LNG liquefaction projects are advancing in Senegal and Mauritania, while unconventional extraction projects are expanding in Australia and Canada. These signals point to a gradual relocation of core Oil & Gas activities to safeguard global production continuity.


Beyond Oil & Gas: transformation scenarios


Reducing dependence on hydrocarbons is now integral to many national strategies. Investment in renewables, green hydrogen, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) is growing. According to Precedence Research (2025), the global SMR market will reach USD 16 billion by 2034.


However, global demand for liquid energy will not disappear. Instead, it will evolve toward greater fragmentation, integration with smart grids, and a stronger focus on operational resilience. Plant engineering will increasingly require cross-disciplinary expertise spanning mechanical engineering, digital lifecycle management, cybersecurity, and geopolitical risk analysis. Oil & Gas will continue to play a central role, acting as a bridge between current infrastructure and future hybrid energy systems.


Conclusions: toward a new balance


The events of June 2025 confirm that the current global energy architecture is highly vulnerable to regional shocks. The Iranian crisis acts as a strategic catalyst: adaptation is no longer sufficient—anticipation is required. The energy sector, particularly Oil & Gas, faces a crossroads: restructure supply and distribution networks through diversification and relocation, while accelerating the transition toward a more balanced energy mix.


In this context, the Strait of Hormuz becomes a symbol not only of a contingent crisis, but of the need to rethink the global energy system. For Europe and the industrialized world, the challenge is not only technical, but profoundly strategic. The Oil & Gas sector stands at the center of this challenge—evolving from a traditional industry into a critical infrastructure of the future global energy system.


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